I have had some thoughts regarding the Great Filter and the Great Silence. Before we get into this, some definitions and background information.
Great Filter - On Earth, life got started, evolved and produced an intelligent animal that created a planet-spanning civilisation. So far, we have not detected another example of this. It is surmised that there are filters that life must survive to flourish. The first is getting started in the first place. Once we have single-celled organisms, we need to jump to multi-celled. We then need to evolve intelligence and create a technological civilisation. The Great Filter is that which prevents civilisations from colonising the Galaxy. The big question is, where is the Great Filter? Is it before us, behind us or are we in its midst?
Great Silence - when it comes to extraterrestrial civilisations, the cosmos is silent. There is a complete lack of evidence for the existence of an extraterrestrial civilisation. The famous (or perhaps infamous) Drake equation can be used to estimate how many alien civilisations might be out there. Depending on what numbers one puts into the equation, the number of potential civilisations could be high. Our planet is a relative latecomer to the Galactic stage; there has been more than enough time for aliens to evolve a civilisation detectable from space. This begs the question, where are they?
Where are They?
Broadly speaking, there are two realistic possibilities to explain the Great Silence. Firstly, the aliens are there but we are too primitive to be able to detect them. Secondly, there are no aliens, therefore, something is wiping them out. If a phenomenon is exterminating life before it can colonise the Galaxy, what is it? Should we be concerned?
Evolutionary Game Theory
Consider a population of beings in an advanced civilisation in rather simplistic terms: "cooperators" and "belligerents". Cooperators share food and resources, while belligerents are aggressive, stealing and selfishly gather, perhaps hoard, these things for themselves.
Game theory, when applied to evolution, states that there will be a stable ratio of these two types to maintain the status quo. A society of all cooperators is unstable because the appearance of very few belligerents can cause havoc and devastate the population. Conversely, having too many belligerents is also unstable for obvious reasons.
Human populations are comprised of approximately 1% psychopaths and 99% non-psychopaths. Accordingly, we must conclude this is a stable ratio. However, we have built a technological civilisation where the impact of one psychopath can, and does, have a grossly disproportionate effect on the whole planet.
It is safe to assume that Richard the Lionheart, Julius Caesar and Genghis Khan were psychopaths. King Richard bankrupted England to wage a bloody war in the Middle East. Julius Caesar committed genocide in Gaul to further his career. Genghis Khan slaughtered millions in his quest to carve out a Mongolian empire. These men were devastating but there was no danger of human extinction.
We had a stable human population but not any more. Now, we have psychopaths who can overcome that stability. Imagine if Hitler had had a nuclear arsenal; he could have made the planet burn, not just his adopted Fatherland, as defeat consumed the Third Reich. Today, we have the likes of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin who hold massive sway over what happens not just to their countries but to the whole planet.
If we survive the twenty first century's rise of fascism, how long before the world forgets about "Never Again!", again? What happens when Hitler 3.0 rises to wreak havoc on our global civilisation? I never expected to see the return of fascism in my lifetime. The fact that it has happened shows how easy it is for us to fall. All it takes is the right psychopath in the right circumstances and history repeats itself, again.
The Great Filter?
So, I hypothesize that the Great Filter is (in human terms) the psychopath who goes too far. If the means exist for a civilisation to end itself, then sooner or later, someone will come along who is crazy or shortsighted enough to make it happen. Threats exist in many forms. The most obvious is a thermonuclear war in a mutually assured destruction scenario. Other scenarios are possible, maybe even more probable. The biggest threat currently facing the human species is an environmental one. Will our angry youth be able to turn the tide against those pushing the profits-before-planet agenda?
Anti-science movements are infecting the planet like a pathogenic virus. Putin's Internet trolls have weaponised pseudoscience to attack the West. Far-Right groups are using data mined from social media to manipulate populations. We have seen the return of measles and outbreaks of other diseases once tamed by vaccines. Pseudo- and tobacco science is keeping climate change denial very much alive. A famous entrepreneur went to a quack to seek treatment for terminal cancer. Activists have caused malnutrition because of ideological objections to a method of creating new species. The list goes on. I have not even mentioned religious extremism.
We have an ailing civilisation. We have psychopaths in positions of power. These men have access to resources that could devastate the planet. They are pursuing policies that are detrimental to the environment. Will we survive this fraught period in our history?
Even if we do make it to the stars, is there any guarantee that our colonies can avoid repeating the same mistakes? I don't see how they can.
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